A quarter of NSW's new home applications this year sit on bushfire prone land

The numbers

Between 15 October 2025 and 14 October 2026, 20,034 development applications lodged in NSW proposed at least one new dwelling. We checked the mapped location of every one of them against the NSW Bush Fire Prone Land map, the RFS certified layer that triggers bushfire planning controls, and every point answered. 5,101 applications, 25.5%, sit on that land. They propose 7,617 dwellings, counting duplicate applications for the same address once and leaving out 46 applications whose dwelling counts we could not trust. That is 16.1% of the 47,420 dwellings proposed in development applications across NSW in the year, counted the same way.

Those figures count development applications only. The portal also holds 6,261 modification applications and 211 reviews of determination lodged in the same twelve months, which amend or contest consents already granted rather than propose new homes; 1,405 of the modifications are on bushfire prone land. Counting every type, the share on the map is 24.7% (6,538 of 26,506). We report the development applications alone so that no home is counted twice across years.

The map grades the land. 810 applications proposing 1,296 dwellings sit on Vegetation Category 1, the highest hazard class in the RFS legend: forest, woodland, heath, forested wetland and timber plantation, the vegetation that carries the most intense fire. A further 2,060 applications (3,043 dwellings) sit on Category 3, which the legend rates medium, higher than Category 2: grasslands, freshwater wetlands, semi arid woodland and alpine complex. Category 2, rainforest and the lower risk vegetation, carries 72 applications (100 dwellings). The remaining 2,159 applications (3,178 dwellings) sit on the vegetation buffer, the 100 metre and 30 metre bands around the mapped vegetation where the same planning rules apply.

Being on the map does not make a home unsafe. It means the application must be assessed under Planning for Bush Fire Protection 2019: a bushfire attack level for the site, construction to the matching standard, and an asset protection zone. The figures on this page describe where new housing is being proposed, not how it will be built. Applications are not approvals: of the 5,101, 3,694 had been determined by mid October, 777 were under assessment, 210 had been withdrawn and 35 refused.

Layer two: the regions

Grouped by the state's own regional plan boundaries, the share of new home applications that sit on the map runs from one in seven in Greater Sydney to one in two on the far coasts. In the South East and Tablelands (nine councils from Wingecarribee to Bega Valley), 587 of 1,181 applications, 49.7%, sit on bushfire prone land, proposing 633 dwellings. On the North Coast (twelve councils from Port Macquarie-Hastings to Tweed), 982 of 2,021, 48.6%, proposing 1,302 dwellings. The Central Coast follows at 42.5% (323 of 760), New England North West at 41.0% (185 of 451), the Hunter at 31.1% (851 of 2,739, proposing 1,466 dwellings), Illawarra Shoalhaven and the rest of regional NSW at 23.0% each.

Greater Sydney's share is 14.6% (1,366 of 9,372 applications), but the volume is large: 1,944 dwellings, more than any single region, because the buffer follows remnant bushland through the growth areas. Even so, 3,735 of the 5,101 applications on the map, 73%, are outside Greater Sydney.

Layer three: the area AFAC shaded for this spring

On 19 August 2026 AFAC, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council, published its spring outlook, "predicting a heightened risk of fire across northern and southeastern NSW, south-east Queensland, northeastern Tasmania, parts of WA, SA and Victoria, and large parts of the NT". Its NSW map is more specific than the sentence. The area shaded for increased risk is an inland band from the Queensland border down through the Northern Tablelands and the north west slopes to the Upper Hunter and the Mid-Western area, plus a small area around Bega. The North Coast, Sydney, the Illawarra and most of the South East are rated average risk.

We georeferenced that map and took the councils where at least half of the year's new home applications fall inside the shaded area: twelve of them, Armidale, Bega Valley, Glen Innes Severn, Gwydir, Inverell, Liverpool Plains, Mid-Western, Muswellbrook, Tamworth, Upper Hunter, Uralla and Walcha. In those councils 270 of 634 new home applications, 42.6%, sit on bushfire prone land, proposing 400 dwellings, 57 of the applications on Category 1 land. What marks the area out is distance: 68 of those 270 sites, 25.2%, are more than 5 km from any fire station or have none within 6 km, against 8.8% across the rest of the state. Counting application points directly rather than whole councils gives the same picture: 248 of 557 points inside the shaded area, 44.5%, with 29% of them far from a station.

The shaded area is lightly built. It holds 3.2% of the state's new home applications and 5.3% of those on bushfire prone land. The regions where new housing most often lands on the hazard map, the North Coast and the South East, are rated average risk this spring. Within the shaded area the share runs from 67% in Bega Valley (79 of 118) and 50% in Mid-Western (49 of 98, 45% of them far from a station) to 19% in Tamworth (23 of 119, which nonetheless propose 144 dwellings, among them a 122 home manufactured home estate at Oxley Vale).

The season behind the outlook is unusual. The Bureau of Meteorology declared an El Niño on 16 June 2026 and, in its climate driver update of 13 October 2026, reported that "El Niño is at near-record levels", with the weekly relative Niño3.4 index at +2.81 °C, "the highest value on record" in the bureau's weekly sea surface temperature series, which begins in 2008, and that all models "forecast the warmth in the tropical Pacific to peak around November or December, and persist into autumn 2027". El Niño years are, on average, drier and hotter across eastern Australia; the bureau's page explains the pattern and its limits.

Layer four: how far the nearest fire station is

For every application on bushfire prone land we measured the straight line distance to the nearest fire station in the state's emergency facilities dataset, counting both Fire and Rescue NSW stations and Rural Fire Service brigade stations. The median across all 5,101 sites is 1.9 km; 2,629 of them (51.5%) are within 2 km of a station. At the other end, 491 sites, 9.6%, are more than 5 km from any station (179) or have none within 6 km (312). That tail is inland: 29.2% of the sites in New England North West (54 of 185), 24.0% in the rest of regional NSW and 23.0% in the South East and Tablelands (135 of 587) are that far from a station, against 9.0% on the North Coast and 0.4% in Greater Sydney. Among the councils in the table below it is highest in Mid-Western (45% of its bushfire prone sites, 22 of 49), Goulburn Mulwaree (37%), Snowy Monaro (36%), Queanbeyan-Palerang (35%, 35 of 101) and Tenterfield (32%).

A nearby brigade station is not a guarantee of a crewed truck on the day, and a distant one is not a verdict; it is one of the things a buyer should know before exchanging on a bush block, next to the bushfire attack level in the assessment.

Where: the councils

By volume, the Central Coast leads with 323 applications on bushfire prone land (42.5% of its new home applications), led by the Warnervale release area. Wollondilly (216), Lake Macquarie (206), Campbelltown (193), Shoalhaven (188, proposing 587 dwellings), Mid-Coast and Tweed (168 each), Port Macquarie-Hastings (163), the Blue Mountains (157), Cessnock (144), The Hills (134) and Penrith (120) follow. By share, among councils with at least 100 new home applications, the picture is coastal and regional: in Bega Valley 67% of new home applications sit on the map, in the Blue Mountains 61%, Byron 59%, Eurobodalla 58%, Nambucca Valley 56%, Clarence Valley 55% and Lismore 52%. Smaller councils run higher again: Yass Valley 81% (78 of 96), Singleton 76%, Cabonne 76%, Tenterfield 75%, Dungog 69% and Kempsey 67%.

Applications on bushfire prone land

Share of a council's new home applications, %

The highest hazard class concentrates differently again. Category 1 land carries the most applications in Central Coast (93), Eurobodalla (57), The Hills (49), Wollondilly (40), Shoalhaven (35), the Blue Mountains (34) and Queanbeyan-Palerang (30).

Where: the estates

The localities with the most applications on the map are not bush blocks; they are the new estates. Kings Forest in Tweed has 96 applications on the map; Menangle Park in Campbelltown 79 and neighbouring Gilead 59; Orchard Hills in Penrith 61; Warnervale on the Central Coast 56; Port Macquarie 45 and Thrumster 41 in Port Macquarie-Hastings; North Rothbury in Cessnock 40; Appin in Wollondilly 40; Calderwood in Shellharbour 33. Sydney's south west growth corridor is being built out on land the RFS map classes as bushfire prone, so every one of those applications is assessed under Planning for Bush Fire Protection, which sets a bushfire attack level for the site. Locality is the portal's suburb field, or the locality named in the address where that field was empty; 109 of the 5,101 applications had neither, so these counts are floors.

The largest single proposals on the map: 450 co-living dwellings at 130 University Drive, Callaghan (PAN-577678, vegetation buffer, lodged 17 October 2025, determined); 298 dwellings in a multi dwelling and moveable dwelling proposal at 112 Bells Lane, Badagarang in Shoalhaven (PAN-597180, Category 3); 201 dwellings of multi dwelling housing at 33 Magpie Hollow Road, South Bowenfels in Lithgow (PAN-607391, Category 1, the highest hazard class); manufactured home estates of 179 homes at 46 Spagnolos Road, Coffs Harbour (PAN-601965, Category 3) and 122 homes at 46 Higgins Lane, Oxley Vale in Tamworth (PAN-645089, Category 3, inside the area AFAC shaded); and a 118 apartment building at 30 Regent Honeyeater Grove, North Kellyville (PAN-667602, buffer). The year's modification applications include larger schemes again, a 911 dwelling scheme at Tallawong among them; those amend consents already granted and are not counted on this page.

The full council table

Every NSW council with at least 40 new home development applications on mapped bushfire prone land in the twelve months to 14 October 2026, 43 councils holding 4,324 of the 5,101. Application and Category 1 counts include every application; dwellings are deduplicated by street address and exclude the doubtful records. "Far from a station" is the share of a council's bushfire prone sites more than 5 km from any Fire and Rescue NSW or RFS station, or with none within 6 km. Region names follow the state's regional plans; "AFAC area" marks the councils inside the area AFAC shaded for increased risk this spring. Localities are the three most frequent in each council.

Council	On bushfire prone land	All new home applications	Share	Dwellings	Category 1	Far from a station	Region	Main localities
Central Coast	323	760	42.5%	412	93	2%	Central Coast	Warnervale 56, Woongarrah 27, Glenning Valley 16
Wollondilly	216	689	31.3%	246	40	2%	Greater Sydney	Appin 40, Wilton 29, Picton 27
Lake Macquarie	206	716	28.8%	288	14	0%	Hunter	Edgeworth 26, Cooranbong 18, Murrays Beach 16
Campbelltown	193	418	46.2%	237	12	0%	Greater Sydney	Menangle Park 79, Gilead 59, Bardia 10
Shoalhaven	188	429	43.8%	587	35	9%	Illawarra Shoalhaven	Sussex Inlet 13, Tomerong 13, Berry 10
Mid-Coast	168	357	47.1%	183	28	19%	Hunter	Taree 13, Forster 12, Nabiac 8
Tweed	168	349	48.1%	176	9	7%	North Coast	Kings Forest 96, Bilambil Heights 12, Cudgen 5
Port Macquarie-Hastings	163	366	44.5%	183	16	2%	North Coast	Port Macquarie 45, Thrumster 41, Kew 10
Blue Mountains	157	257	61.1%	150	34	0%	Greater Sydney	Springwood 15, Faulconbridge 14, Leura 14
Cessnock	144	377	38.2%	166	17	4%	Hunter	North Rothbury 40, Rothbury 18, Heddon Greta 12
The Hills	134	622	21.5%	265	49	1%	Greater Sydney	North Kellyville 21, Kenthurst 20, Glenorie 10
Penrith	120	330	36.4%	145	8	0%	Greater Sydney	Orchard Hills 61, Londonderry 13, Jordan Springs 6
Byron	119	202	58.9%	144	14	7%	North Coast	Byron Bay 21, Suffolk Park 16, Mullumbimby 12
Eurobodalla	118	204	57.8%	133	57	8%	South East and Tablelands	Malua Bay 15, Long Beach 14, Rosedale 11
Coffs Harbour	116	298	38.9%	303	10	1%	North Coast	Moonee Beach 23, Coffs Harbour 17, Bonville 11
Clarence Valley	113	205	55.1%	117	17	17%	North Coast	Gulmarrad 22, Iluka 10, Waterview Heights 6
Queanbeyan-Palerang	101	243	41.6%	100	30	35%	South East and Tablelands	Greenleigh 12, Wamboin 12, Googong 9
Northern Beaches	91	658	13.8%	93	10	0%	Greater Sydney	Avalon Beach 8, Clontarf 7, Forestville 7
Port Stephens	87	210	41.4%	108	12	6%	Hunter	Medowie 19, Boat Harbour 7, Nelson Bay 7
Hornsby	82	235	34.9%	93	12	0%	Greater Sydney	Hornsby Heights 10, Berowra Heights 7, Dural 6
Wingecarribee	82	197	41.6%	87	15	12%	South East and Tablelands	Wingello 9, Berrima 7, Bowral 6
Bega Valley	79	118	66.9%	83	18	18%	South East and Tablelands (AFAC area)	Eden 9, Tathra 7, Millingandi 6
Lismore	79	152	52%	95	6	6%	North Coast	Nimbin 11, Goonellabah 8, Clunes 6
Yass Valley	78	96	81.3%	85	7	24%	South East and Tablelands	Murrumbateman 26, Gundaroo 13, Sutton 13
Shellharbour	69	473	14.6%	81	1	6%	Illawarra Shoalhaven	Calderwood 33, Tullimbar 21, Albion Park 3
Ku-ring-gai	65	233	27.9%	65	1	0%	Greater Sydney	St Ives 10, Wahroonga 7, East Killara 6
Nambucca Valley	65	117	55.6%	77	9	6%	North Coast	Nambucca Heads 15, Valla Beach 9, North Macksville 6
Singleton	61	80	76.3%	71	17	8%	Hunter	Hunterview 15, Gowrie 14, Sedgefield 7
Camden	60	466	12.9%	63	1	0%	Greater Sydney	Cobbitty 20, Catherine Field 6, Oran Park 5
Hawkesbury	60	198	30.3%	64	19	0%	Greater Sydney	Oakville 7, Glossodia 5, Kurmond 5
Kempsey	59	88	67%	95	14	20%	North Coast	South West Rocks 13, Crescent Head 9, Dondingalong 6
Maitland	55	321	17.1%	67	1	2%	Hunter	Chisholm 22, East Maitland 4, Farley 4
Tenterfield	54	72	75%	57	9	32%	New England North West	Tenterfield 30, Bolivia 3, Cullendore 2
Sutherland	51	372	13.7%	68	3	0%	Greater Sydney	Engadine 14, Illawong 5, Barden Ridge 4
Goulburn Mulwaree	49	109	45%	54	6	37%	South East and Tablelands	Marulan 10, Tallong 9, Boxers Creek 4
Mid-Western	49	98	50%	51	15	45%	Other regional (AFAC area)	Gulgong 5, Hargraves 4, Rylstone 4
Snowy Monaro	47	84	56%	53	11	36%	South East and Tablelands	Bredbo 4, Cooma 4, East Jindabyne 4
Albury	45	167	26.9%	45	5	9%	Other regional	Thurgoona 12, Table Top 11, East Albury 4
Wollongong	45	373	12.1%	52	6	0%	Illawarra Shoalhaven	Figtree 5, Helensburgh 5, Bulli 4
Newcastle	43	516	8.3%	495	1	0%	Hunter	Adamstown Heights 9, Minmi 9, Merewether 5
Cabonne	41	54	75.9%	41	1	12%	Other regional	Molong 6, Nashdale 5, Borenore 3
Wagga Wagga	41	281	14.6%	50	2	10%	Other regional	Gumly Gumly 11, Lloyd 5, Currawarna 3
Dungog	40	58	69%	39	12	23%	Hunter	Vacy 8, Clarence Town 7, Paterson 5
All NSW	5,101	20,034	25.5%	7,617	810	9.6%

Journalists are welcome to reproduce this table with attribution to PropertyFlags. Write to hello@propertyflags.com.au for the underlying application list for any council, including application numbers, addresses, lodgement dates, status and the hazard category at each point.

What this means, and what it does not

It means that a quarter of the state's new home applications, and nearly half of them on the North Coast and in the South East, are being proposed on land where bushfire is a design condition. Those homes will be assessed and, where approved, built to a bushfire attack level. For a later buyer the map is the starting point, and the nearest station is the second question.

It does not mean that these homes are unsafe or should not be built. The bushfire prone land map exists so that building on it is done to a standard. Nor is it a count of approvals: applications can be refused, amended or withdrawn, and our dwelling counts come from the portal's own field, which is why we removed 249 records statewide, 46 of them on the map, where that field did not match the application type or its stated cost. Dwelling counts are floors: duplicates at the same address are counted once and doubtful records are dropped, never estimated.

How we checked. The portal returned 20,036 development applications proposing at least one new dwelling; two of them, both lots in North Rothbury, were lodged without coordinates and are left out, leaving the 20,034 above. Every one of the 23,743 distinct coordinates across all application types answered the RFS layer, so no point is assumed either way. We then re-queried 120 points chosen at random, 60 on the map and 60 off it, against a second service, the NSW Planning Portal's own Bushfire Prone Land layer, and with a 10 metre buffer around each point: zero disagreements. A second pass re-derived every number in the table from the raw application list, re-pulled the twelve months from the portal to classify application types, and found no application point sitting on more than one map polygon in a sample of 150. The AFAC area is our reading of AFAC's published NSW map, georeferenced on the state's western border and nine marked cities to within about 6 km; shifting every point by 5 km changes the share inside the area from 44.5% to 43.3%. The council list is stated above so it can be disputed.

What is not here. We test the application's portal coordinate, not the whole parcel; a lot whose edge touches the map can test off it, so the counts lean low. Complying development certificates are a separate dataset and are not counted; on bushfire prone land complying development is limited to the lower bushfire attack levels, so the share of all new homes, including those, would be lower than 25.5%.

What a buyer can do. Ask for the bushfire attack level in the assessment and the asset protection zone on the plan, check the distance to the nearest station and the access out of the street, and read the RFS Bush Fire Prone Land map for the lot, not the suburb. A PropertyFlags report reads that map, the flood layer, the heritage register and the rest of the public record for the exact address, in under a minute.

Sources

NSW Planning Portal Online DA API (application coordinates, type, dwelling counts, status) · 26,508 applications proposing at least one new dwelling, lodged 15 October 2025 to 14 October 2026: 20,036 development applications, 6,261 modification applications, 211 reviews of determination
NSW Bush Fire Prone Land map, RFS certified (Fire/BFPL/MapServer, layer 0) · point in polygon for 23,743 distinct coordinates; hazard category per point; category descriptions from the layer legend
NSW Planning Portal Hazard service, Bushfire Prone Land layer (second service used for the 120 point check)
NSW Foundation Spatial Data, Emergency Service Facilities (Fire and Rescue NSW, layer 0; NSW Rural Fire Service, layer 2) · nearest station by straight line within 6 km
AFAC, Seasonal Bushfire Outlook Spring 2026, text and the NSW map sheet · published 19 August 2026; the NSW map (AFAC-Seasonal-Bushfire-Outlook_Maps_Spring-2026_NSW) is attached to that page
Bureau of Meteorology, ENSO and climate driver update · update of 13 October 2026: El Niño at near-record levels
ABC News, El Niño declared by the Bureau of Meteorology, 16 June 2026
NSW Rural Fire Service, Planning for Bush Fire Protection 2019 · the controls that apply on mapped bushfire prone land
NSW regional plans (Greater Sydney, Central Coast, Hunter, Illawarra Shoalhaven, North Coast, New England North West, South East and Tablelands) · council lists behind the region column

All sources queried or checked on 15 October 2026. If a figure on this page and a source disagree, tell us at hello@propertyflags.com.au and we will correct the page.

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